Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
