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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's race is profoundly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending together. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still